SSP’s Competitive Senate Race Ratings (6/15/08)

Likely D Lean D Tossup Lean R Likely R
VA (Open) LA (Landrieu)
NM (Open)		 CO (Open)
NH (Sununu)		 AK (Stevens)
MN (Coleman)
MS (Wicker)
NC (Dole)		 ME (Collins)
OR (Smith)

Races to Watch:  

     KS (Roberts)

     KY (McConnell)

     NE (Open)

     NJ (Lautenberg)

     OK (Inhofe)

     TX (Cornyn)

Today’s Ratings Changes:

  • Mississippi (Wicker): Likely Republican to Leans Republican

    After former Mississippi AG Mike Moore passed on the race to replace retired Sen. Trent Lott, few were bullish on this contest as a Democratic pickup opportunity, even after former Gov. Ronnie Musgrove jumped into the fray. But recent polls suggest that Musgrove’s statewide profile is giving him an early advantage over interim Sen. Roger Wicker, who previously represented Northeast Mississippi in the House. Coupled with Barack Obama’s presence on the ballot energizing the state’s large African-American constituency (roughly 37% of the population), Musgrove picked the perfect year to try a statewide comeback. What’s more, the lack of party identification on the special election ballot could hurt Wicker with “low-information” GOP voters.

    Still, Wicker’s huge early financial edge cannot be discounted, as it has allowed him to get on the airwaves early in order to raise his name recognition in Southern Mississippi. Wicker’s biggest weakness (his lack of a statewide profile) also represents room for growth.

    This will be a tightly-watched contest, and it won’t be the GOP lock that some had assumed it’d be after Haley Barbour worked around the law to push the special election to November.

    • 26 thoughts on “SSP’s Competitive Senate Race Ratings (6/15/08)”

    1. I would say your rankings are too conservative.

      I would put NM as likely D. Udall has twice the money of his opponent, and is/has been polling ahead by double digits for the whole race.

      I would put NH and CO as leans D. Shaheen has been polling 7+ points ahead, and isn’t too far behind in fundraising. In CO Udall has been polling ahead from the start and has double the fundraising as Bob.

      I would than put AK, MS-B and MN as tossup’s. Begich though behind in fundraising has been polling ahead of Stevens by a few points, in MN Franken is only polling a few points behind, and in MS-B polls show a statistical tie.

    2. . . . Mississippi and North Carolina in the same bracket as Oregon and Maine.  The former two have unknown and unpopular incumbents, respectively, but are very red states.  With the latter two, the reverse is true.  All things being equal, I’d say that it balances out, such that they all have the same likelihood of flipping.

    4. James, unlike with a tiny handful of your House ratings, I think you are right on the money with all of the ratings.  A few comments:

      Alaska: While the great polls might make some think this race is a toss-up or perhaps even leaning our way, this race is still definitely a GOP leaner.  We cannot forget Stevens’ longtime popularity in the state.  No matter what the polls say now, I still respect how tough it will be to knock out Uncle Ted.  

      Minnesota: Along with Alaska, the two are probably the most likely to move to pure toss-up, but Minny is not there yet either.  I think the needle will move as the Playboy story goes away and more voters turn their attention to Coleman’s rubber-stamp record in th eSenate.  

      Mississippi: Even though I continually harp on how much I love this race, I think that ultimately it may be in the GOP-leaning category the entire campaign solely based on the state’s red make-up.  If we do win it, it will be one of those massive-upsets the media likes to tout the morning after.  

      Oregon: I think this race will move closer to us as the campaign develops, but it definitely ain’t there yet.  Merkley needs to get his name out there.  

      Conservative forecasting, but totally accurate at this time.  

    5. raises in Q2.

      If he can haul in 1 or 2 million and Wicker doesn’t pull another huge haul then this might just be a tossup.

    6. wipe = 20+ margin

      strong = 10-20 margin

      weak = 5-10 margin

      bare = 0-5 margin

      even = margin right around 0

      * = flip

      Alabama: R wipe

      Alaska: even to bare D

      Arkansas: D wipe

      Colorado: D bare

      Delaware: D wipe

      Georgia: R strong

      Idaho: with the news abour Rammell, R bare to even

      Illinois: D strong to D wipe

      Iowa: D strong to D wipe

      Kansas: R weak

      Kentucky: R bare

      Louisiana: D bare

      Maine: R bare to R weak

      Massachusetts: D weak to D strong

      Michigan: D strong to D wipe

      Minnesota: R bare to R weak

      Mississippi (Cochran): R wipe

      Mississippi (Wicker): R bare to D bare (effectively even but very dynamic)

      Montana: R WIPE LOL…okay, I’ll be serious, D wipe

      Nebraska: R weak to R bare

      New Hampshire: D bare to D weak

      New Jersey: D weak

      New Mexico: D weak to D strong

      North Carolina: R bare to even

      Oklahoma: R strong to R weak (though I’m hoping and hoping that Rice beats Inhofe)

      Oregon: R weak to even

      Rhode Island: D wipe

      South Carolina: R wipe to R strong

      South Dakota: D strong to D wipe

      Tennessee: R wipe to R weak

      Texas: R weak to even

      Virginia: D strong to D wipe

      West Virginia: I really don’t know.  I’ve just heard practically nothing about this race.

      Wyoming (Enzi): R wipe to R strong

      Wyoming (Barrasso): R wipe to R strong

      Note that, given that this is such a good D year, we should at least be aiming to avoid wipes even in the most difficult of races.  On the other hand, our safe races (Michigan, Illinois, etc.) should be wipes instead of just strongs–at least, we should work (albeit low priority) to make sure they are wipes instead of just strongs.

      Notice that I’m differentiating between wipe and strong, to make room for some additional information about the strength of our incumbents, as well as how well we’re making inroads into red territory.

    7. with these cautious rankings. But I would put OR into the ‘lean R’-column. Even CQ rates this race as lean Republican.  

    10. Cash on Hand balances are not very even at this point in the election cycle and perhaps should be fed into the calculation of where we are now.

      LA- Landrieu has almost a 3-1 edge at $4,564,081 to $1,623391 (data as of 3/31).  I see the money as what brings her back to the Senate.

      CO- Udall leads by a few points and also by $2.1 million.  Shaffer is advertising so the money is already a factor.  Money pushes this to Lean D.

      NH- Just the opposite of the first two.  Sununu has $4,313,762 to Shaheen’s $1,837,538 and is outraising her to boot by $4.0 million to $2.5 million.  The money pulls the race back to even.

      AK-  Stevens enjoys an early edge at $1,318,721 to Begich’s $204,207.  Given legal bills and uncle Ted’s tenure this is tighter on the cash front that it “should be.” An edge to Stevens but not a knockout.

      Republicans hold huge edges in Texas ($8,688,953 to $329,253), NC ($3,157,666 to $317,311 as of 4/16), Kansas ($2,986,794 to $286,125), Minnesota ($6,960,612 to $3,491,479), and Maine ($4,630,275 to $2,568,924 as of 5/21).  Lautenberg has a humongous lead in Jersey ($4,123,000 to $446,075 as of 5/14).  These numbers may be bogus as they show Rob Andrews barely denting his own money even though he seemed to outspend Lautenberg in a vain attempt to keep things close.

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